Another week, another bold prediction about our glorious, autonomous future. This time, the financial soothsayers at Morgan Stanley have gazed into their crystal ball and seen a world teeming with Tesla robotaxis. While the industry has been marinating in promises of self-driving cars for what feels like an eternity, this latest forecast puts some surprisingly concrete numbers on the table, suggesting Tesla is approaching a genuine “inflection point” from science project to a million-strong vehicular hive mind.
The note, penned by analyst Andrew Percoco who recently took the Tesla reins from the notoriously bullish Adam Jonas, projects a significant ramp-up. The bank sees Tesla’s current fleet of 50 to 150 test vehicles swelling to around 1,000 robotaxis on U.S. roads by 2026. Fast forward to 2035, and that number could explode to one million autonomous vehicles operating across multiple cities. It’s a staggering leap that would fundamentally reshape urban mobility, assuming, of course, the pesky little details of reality, regulation, and public acceptance don’t get in the way.
The Three Trials of Autonomy
According to Morgan Stanley, this utopian (or dystopian, depending on your view of traffic) future hinges on Tesla successfully navigating three key trials. These aren’t just technical hurdles; they’re fundamental shifts in operation and production that would signal a true commercial rollout.
First, and most critically, is opening the robotaxi service to the general public without a human safety monitor inside. This is the big one. Recent tests in Austin, Texas, have seen Tesla vehicles cruising the streets completely empty, a milestone CEO Elon Musk confirmed was underway. While these are still internal validation runs and not yet available to paying customers, it’s a crucial step toward shedding the human babysitter.
Second, Tesla must demonstrate a consistent improvement in safety metrics as it logs more miles completely unsupervised. Regulators and the public will need overwhelming proof that these machines are safer than the distractible, error-prone humans they’re replacing. Every disengagement, every weird hesitation at a four-way stop will be scrutinized. Tesla’s ability to scale its safety case across new cities and states in 2026 is paramount.
Third is the arrival of the Cybercab. Morgan Stanley points to a targeted start of production around April 2026. This isn’t just a modified Model Y; it’s a purpose-built vehicle with no steering wheel, no pedals, and just two seats, all designed for maximum efficiency and low-cost manufacturing. Musk has claimed this vehicle, built with an “unboxed” manufacturing process, could eventually roll off the line every 10 seconds.
From Austin Testbed to Urban Domination
The current reality is far more modest. Tesla’s robotaxi program remains a small, tightly controlled experiment, primarily in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area. These early deployments, which began with human monitors in the passenger seat, are the necessary first steps. The recent move to fully unoccupied test drives in Austin is a tangible sign of progress, moving the needle from a perpetually “just around the corner” technology to something that can be seen and validated on public roads.
Still, the gap between a few dozen cars in Texas and a million-vehicle network is vast. Competitors like Waymo already operate fully autonomous commercial services and are scaling up their own fleets. However, Morgan Stanley’s thesis rests on Tesla’s unique ability to scale manufacturing and leverage its massive trove of data from its consumer fleet.
A Calculated Bet on a Robotic Future
Morgan Stanley maintains a balanced “Equal-weight” rating on Tesla’s stock, acknowledging that execution and regulatory approval remain monumental hurdles. The forecast isn’t a guarantee; it’s a roadmap of what’s possible if Tesla can deliver on its ambitious promises. The path from cautious pilot programs to a city-scale network is becoming clearer, but it’s a path littered with technical challenges and bureaucratic roadblocks.
For now, the vision of a million Tesla robotaxis remains on the horizon. But with each unsupervised mile driven in Austin and every step closer to the Cybercab’s production, that horizon gets just a little bit closer. Whether it’s the dawn of a new era in transportation or just the latest chapter in the Tesla hype cycle remains to be seen, but Wall Street is clearly starting to believe the “if” is turning into a “when.”
